The advanced numbers, built from scratch. What each metric measures, how it's actually computed, and where it misleads.
Red-zone defense is its own skill: holding offenses to field goals, the field-shrinks dynamic, pressure and turnovers near the goal line, and why TD% allowed and points-per-trip beat scoring percentage.
Go, punt, or kick on fourth down — by field position and distance. The win-probability framing, why analytics pushes toward going for it, and how coaching aggressiveness actually varies.
Sack rate allowed versus created, why pressure and sacks aren't the same thing, how much credit belongs to the line, the quarterback, and the scheme, and what adjusted sack rate fixes.
Red-zone scoring percentage flatters teams that settle for field goals. Why touchdown rate and points per trip tell the truth, and how to measure red-zone offense honestly.
Third-down conversion rate is a headline efficiency stat — but third-and-1 and third-and-12 are different games. How distance-to-go ties it to success rate and passing downs.
The exact NCAA passer rating formula, worked term by term, how it differs from the NFL's capped rating, and the real limitations of a single quarterback number.
Third-and-1 and third-and-12 aren't the same game. How splitting plays into standard downs and passing downs sharpens every efficiency number.
Turnover margin decides games but barely predicts them. Why fumble recoveries are close to a coin flip, how turnover luck regresses, and what's actually a skill.
Havoc rate counts the plays a defense blows up — tackles for loss, forced fumbles, and passes defensed — as a share of snaps. How it's built and what it reveals.
Not all yards are equal. How expected points turns a spot on the field into a scoring value, and why field position quietly decides close games.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index grades whole possessions, not single plays. How drive-based, opponent-adjusted efficiency complements SP+ and explosiveness.
Success rate measures how often you stay on schedule; explosiveness measures the big plays. How yards per play and marginal explosiveness complete the picture.
A worked strength-of-schedule calculation from a real schedule, and why unadjusted stats reward the soft slate.
Possessions, points per 100, and opponent adjustment — the tempo-free framework that makes basketball stats comparable.
The NCAA's NET, quadrants, and the selection committee: what the metric rewards, what it ignores, and how to read a team sheet.
Compute success rate and expected points added by hand from a real drive, and see why down-and-distance beats raw yards.
What SP+ actually measures, why opponent adjustment matters more than raw stats, and how a tempo-free efficiency rating is built.