How Lopsided Is College Football? 877 Games, Sorted by Final Margin
Just over a third of 2024's 877 cached games were one-score — and 29% were decided by 25+ points. The full margin distribution, with the cupcake games split out.
College Football
The expanded playoff, returning production, and realignment — read through power ratings and play-by-play instead of vibes.
How Often Does the Better Offense Win? A 532-Game Answer
The team with the higher scoring average entering kickoff won 67.3% of 532 cached 2024 matchups — but barely 57% when the gap was under 3 points a game.
Home-Field Advantage, Measured: How +8.8 Points Becomes +3.0
The home team won 64% of 2024 FBS games by an average of +8.8 points, but the real home edge is about +3. Measured from 873 cached games, schedule bias split out.
Yards Per Play Built a Champion: Ohio State's 2024 Season, Game by Game
Ohio State's two 2024 regular-season losses were its two closest games by yards per play — and against Michigan it won the per-play battle and lost anyway.
How College Football Overtime Math Works (and Why Going Second Wins)
College overtime gives each team a possession from the 25 — and the team playing defense first wins about 56% of the time. We model that information edge.
Recruiting Geography: Where College Football's Talent Comes From
Talent isn't spread evenly. Where the blue-chip recruits actually come from, why a few states dominate, and what that means for who can contend.
Special Teams in College Football: The Hidden Points
Field goals, returns, and field position quietly swing games. How to value the third phase, why it's volatile, and where the hidden yardage really adds up.
Second-Order Wins: Measuring How Lucky a College Football Team Got
How many games should a team have won? Postgame win expectancy turns the box score into expected wins — and the gap from the real record is mostly luck.
Tempo in College Football: Do Faster Offenses Really Win More?
Up-tempo offenses run more plays — but more plays isn't the same as more efficiency. What pace does and doesn't do, measured per play instead of per game.
How Recruiting Rankings Work: Star Ratings, Composites, and What They Predict
What star ratings really mean, how the 247Sports Composite and team class rankings are built, and how much recruiting actually predicts on the field.
The Blue-Chip Ratio: Does Recruiting Talent Actually Predict Titles?
The blue-chip ratio is the simplest recruiting-to-results stat there is. What it measures, why every recent champion clears the bar, and where it breaks down.
The 12-Team Playoff Era, by the Numbers: What's Actually Changed
Two seasons of 12-team College Football Playoff results, scored: seed performance, byes, blowouts, and what the bracket really rewards.
Conference Realignment's Statistical Aftermath: Travel, Parity, and Power Ratings
The new superconferences, measured: cross-country travel miles, competitive parity, and what realignment did to the power curve.
Returning Production: How Much Does It Really Predict? A Data Check
Returning production correlates with next-year results — but how strongly, and where does the relationship break down?