How Lopsided Is College Football? 877 Games, Sorted by Final Margin
Just over a third of 2024's 877 cached games were one-score — and 29% were decided by 25+ points. The full margin distribution, with the cupcake games split out.
The numbers behind the games — and the new economics of the college athlete.
College football and basketball, men's and women's, explained with real data: advanced ratings built from scratch, the playoff and portal quantified, and a hype-free look at NIL and revenue sharing for the athletes living it.
Featured article
College Football
The 12-Team Playoff Era, by the Numbers: What's Actually Changed
Two seasons of 12-team College Football Playoff results, scored: seed performance, byes, blowouts, and what the bracket really rewards.
Latest articles
Browse all sections →How Often Does the Better Offense Win? A 532-Game Answer
The team with the higher scoring average entering kickoff won 67.3% of 532 cached 2024 matchups — but barely 57% when the gap was under 3 points a game.
Home-Field Advantage, Measured: How +8.8 Points Becomes +3.0
The home team won 64% of 2024 FBS games by an average of +8.8 points, but the real home edge is about +3. Measured from 873 cached games, schedule bias split out.
Redshirts and the Eligibility Clock: The Five-to-Play-Four Math
The five-year clock, four seasons, the four-game redshirt window, and medical hardship tests — the eligibility math laid out, with the litigated edges flagged.
How to Split $20.5 Million: The Roster-Allocation Math of Revenue Sharing
The revenue-sharing cap is one number; dividing it across a roster is the hard part. An illustrative split of a $20.5M pool by sport and position; not advice.
Should You Foul Up Three? The End-Game Math Coaches Still Argue About
Leading by three late, fouling beats defending the shot — about a 90% win probability against 82.5%. The decision tree, and why coaches still won't do it.
Explore by section
Stat Explainers
The advanced numbers, built from scratch. What each metric measures, how it's actually computed, and where it misleads.
33 articles →
College Football
The expanded playoff, returning production, and realignment — read through power ratings and play-by-play instead of vibes.
14 articles →
College Basketball
March upsets, the women's game's measurable boom, and the at-large math that decides who's left out. Men's and women's hoops.
13 articles →
NIL & The Business
Revenue sharing, the transfer portal, roster limits, and NIL — explained plainly for fans and for the athletes living it. Not advice.
7 articles →
Tutorials
Pull the data yourself. Runnable Python and spreadsheet walkthroughs for college football and basketball analytics.
24 articles →
History
The improbable seasons and the long, messy argument over how college sports picks a champion — told with the receipts.
3 articles →