College Football & Basketball Calculators
Hands-on versions of the formulas we explain across the site — passer rating, Pythagorean win expectation, Elo win probability, success rate, and a Monte-Carlo bracket simulator. Every one runs entirely in your browser on numbers you supply. No data is fetched and no real team or result is ever invented; these are transparent math tools and clearly-labelled models.
NCAA passer rating
The official college passing-efficiency rating: four box-score numbers, four weights, one division. It is a different formula and scale from the NFL rating.
Pure math on the numbers you enter. Nothing is fetched and no real team, player, or result is named or invented.
Pythagorean expectation (CFB)
Turn a team's points-for and points-against into an expected win percentage, using the college-football exponent of 2.37. A team beating this number has been lucky in close games.
Pure math on the numbers you enter. Nothing is fetched and no real team, player, or result is named or invented.
Elo win probability
Give the rating gap between two teams and get the favorite's win probability from the Elo logistic. Add any home-field bonus to the home rating before you take the difference.
Pure math on the numbers you enter. Nothing is fetched and no real team, player, or result is named or invented.
Was the play a success?
Classify a single play by the standard success-rate rule: a play succeeds if it gains ≥50% of the distance on 1st down, ≥70% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd or 4th.
Pure math on the numbers you enter. Nothing is fetched and no real team, player, or result is named or invented.
Success rate over a set of plays
Paste a list of plays and get the offense's success rate — the share of plays that stayed on schedule by the down-and-distance rule.
Pure math on the numbers you enter. Nothing is fetched and no real team, player, or result is named or invented.
Bracket simulator (single elimination)
Enter your own field of 8–16 teams with a rating each. The tool runs thousands of random single-elimination tournaments — each game decided by the Elo logistic on the rating gap — and reports every team's title odds with one sample bracket. It is a model built from your inputs, not a prediction of any real tournament.
A projection from your own ratings, run as random simulations. Not a forecast of any real bracket; no real team is named or result invented.