Minnesota is 4-2 and Penn State 3-3, yet Penn State is likelier to reach six wins. Margins plus the games left beat the record table by 19% in 2024 and 2025.
By CollegeAthleteInsider
FBS teams in 2024 and 2025 by record at the cutoff, split by whether the combined forecast gave them at least an even chance, and how many of each group reached six regular-season wins.
Record
Forecast 50% or better
Forecast under 50%
2-4Forecast 50% or better: 100%Forecast under 50%: 25%
2-3Forecast 50% or better: 67%Forecast under 50%: 34%
3-3Forecast 50% or better: 80%Forecast under 50%: 20%
3-2Forecast 50% or better: 69%Forecast under 50%: 60%
Source: ESPN's public scoreboard, the 2024 and 2025 regular seasons and 2026 through October 12 plus the remaining schedule, retrieved October 7 and October 14, 2026.
Minnesota is 4-2 and Penn State is 3-3. In 2024 and 2025, 12 of the 15 FBS teams that stood 4-2 at this point of the season finished the regular season with at least six wins, and 9 of the 15 that stood 3-3. The forecast in this piece puts the two teams the other way round: Penn State has a 90% chance of reaching six and Minnesota a 60% chance.
Two ranked teams both win: the lower one finishes ahead 18.4% of the time if it alone beat a ranked team, 2.3% if neither did and the upper won by more than a score.
Seven of the 39 hosts that played twice in weeks one and two announced the identical attendance figure both times. It measures the stadium, not the game.
79 Saturday lines from open to game morning: each point a team beat its week-one number by moved its line a tenth of a point, and the moving was done by Wednesday.