The Line Learned From Week One, at a Tenth of the Volume
79 Saturday lines from open to game morning: each point a team beat its week-one number by moved its line a tenth of a point, and the moving was done by Wednesday.
The numbers behind the games — and the new economics of the college athlete.
College football and basketball, men's and women's, explained with real data: advanced ratings built from scratch, the playoff and portal quantified, and a hype-free look at NIL and revenue sharing for the athletes living it.
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College Football
The 12-Team Playoff Era, by the Numbers: What's Actually Changed
Two seasons of 12-team College Football Playoff results, scored: seed performance, byes, blowouts, and what the bracket really rewards.
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Browse all sections →Ninety-One Games, Thirty-Five Bits: What Week One Told Us
Week one's 91 games were priced to carry 34.8 bits of information and delivered 31.2. Week two's 58 priced games are worth more before a snap.
Opening Saturday 2026, Priced: 68 Games Against the Number
Saturday September 5, 2026, measured against the line: favorites 63-5 and 45-23 against the spread, FBS road underdogs 0-26, and a miss that was 16 points wide.
The Schedule Already Knew: 2026's Opening Weeknights, Measured
The 19 completed games of 2026's opening weeknights: a rule using only the schedule went 16-3, and all three misses came from the six games with no ranking.
What a Week-One Loss Actually Costs: One Game of Arithmetic, and the Rest Is Identity
2024's 37 FBS opener losers, tracked: 46% still reached six wins, close losses predicted no better than blowouts, and the real cost was one game of slack.
Week Zero 2026, Measured: Eight Games and No One Left to Ambush
Week zero 2026 was eight FBS-vs-FBS games and zero FCS visitors - so exactly 8 of 16 teams had to lose. The opening weekend's only wildcard is gone, measured.
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Stat Explainers
The advanced numbers, built from scratch. What each metric measures, how it's actually computed, and where it misleads.
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College Football
The expanded playoff, returning production, and realignment — read through power ratings and play-by-play instead of vibes.
31 articles →
College Basketball
March upsets, the women's game's measurable boom, and the at-large math that decides who's left out. Men's and women's hoops.
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NIL & The Business
Revenue sharing, the transfer portal, roster limits, and NIL — explained plainly for fans and for the athletes living it. Not advice.
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Tutorials
Pull the data yourself. Runnable Python and spreadsheet walkthroughs for college football and basketball analytics.
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History
The improbable seasons and the long, messy argument over how college sports picks a champion — told with the receipts.
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